Look out, National League! There is one team that is going to be not quite as good as it was last year, but will still win at least 80 games! That's right, the Philadelphia Phillies, firm believers in tradition, have decided to pick up a few more pieces of rusty metal off the scrap heap. What looks like JD Durbin, sounds like JD Durbin, and puts about as much fear into opposing hitters as JD Durbin? That would be his brother,
Chad Durbin, who is now a Philadelphia Phillie. Dontrelle Willis? Puh-leez. Johan Santana? Whatever. We've got Chad Durbin. That's why this is one of the most storied franchises in all of sports, because they always are doing whatever it takes to build a champion. Speaking of building a champion, we have a new centerfielder to replace Rowand!
Geoff Jenkins. He's older than Rowand, and not as good as Rowand, but that's OK, because he's cheaper than Rowand, and that's what this franchise is all about. Keeping it cheap. 4th largest market in baseball. 15th highest payroll. Jenkins actually isn't that bad, though. He does give you a little pop in the outfield (21 HRs last year), but his BA was only .255. But he's definitely not as good as Rowand.
Digg It!
I'd rather have Mike Cameron, but I don't hate these moves. With Jenkins, the Phillies lose very little - if anything - on offense (his numbers will be better than Rowand's in that cavernous San Fran park). Durbin the elder could have one of those JC Romero-like, out-of-nowhere seasons after switching from the AL to the NL. They lose Rowand's goodguy-ness (I just made that up), but how do you quantify that stuff anyway? Hey, they're still the NL East champs; anything can happen.
His power numbers may be better, but I think that Rowand will hit for a higher average. But I don't think that the Jenkins signing was all that bad. As for Durbin, I think that's wishful thinking. Romero had shown flashes of brilliance in the past. Durbin has a career ERA of 5.75 and last years ERA of 4.72 was the lowest of his 10 year career. He is garbage.
Durbin is a body. Nothing more. But you will be pleasantly surprised by Jenkins. He will hit 30 homers this season, including some ticket-selling walk-offs, while platooning with Werth in right and Burrell in left.
Write it down, sister.
I, for one, applaud the Phillies' abiity to be phrugal.
Sure, a Pennant is great, but even back in 1980 when they won, the only thing that kept going through my head was, "Damn, did we really have to pay Tug McGraw THAT MUCH???"
I mean, the U.S. Ice Hockey team beat the Russians that year... FOR FREE!
I was also three years old at the time, so my judgment may not have been as keen back then.
1. The Durbins are not brothers. They may share common interests and an inability to throw strikes, but not a direct bloodline.
2. Geoff Jenkins has been extremely average the past 2 seasons. And he's never been able to hit left handers worth a lick. But if he gets back to his 2005 form, it's a great pickup.
Thanks, front office. Like every other befuddled fan, I will continue to buy tickets to your games and stand in line to get a Wes Helms doll. And in September I'll be scratching my head and wondering why your team won't make the post season. But I'll still be compelled to support your business like a good automaton. After all, I get what I pay for and here in Philly that is a shit sandwich--at least it's better than the Schmitter.
It is a stone cold mortal lock that if health a platoon on Geoff Jenkins and Jason Werth will be better then Rowand next year.
It is possible that that could be the case but to suggest that it is a certainty ignores all statistical evidence to the contrary.
Well, by doing some quick stats we see that over the past 3 seasons Aaron Rowand has hit 280/341/449. Durring that same period Geoff Jenkins has hit 289/366/497 against RHPs. Jason Werth was hurt all of 2006 and much of 2005 so his three year average is skewed. Last year he hit an amazing 375/467/591 against lefties but that is a very small sample so lets look at his Carreer numbers. They are 284/378/486 against lefties. Combining Jenkins 3 year average with Werth you get a line of 289/366/497. You have to factor in that Jenkins is getting older and his numbers should continue a decline, especially in Power, but he is moving to a park where it is 22% easier to hit a home run then where he played last year (based on espn's HR factors). Rowand on the other hand is moveing to a park where it is 60% harder to hit a home run and age wise he is reaching the end of his statisical peak. Rowand is also moving into a much weaker lineup where he will see less to hit.
Sorry Geoff Jenkins 3 year numbers against RHPs are 291/366/503. the combined numbers for Jenkins and werth are 289/366/497.
What Rowand may do with the Giants is not central to the discussion since we're talking about the center field position with the Phillies. Jayson Werth's numbers are also hard to extrapolate on as he has been an injured role player throughout his career. Granted he performed very well last season but stretching those numbers over 130+ games is tough to do. Jenkins numbers are nice but they're not as good as Rowand's. I can't think of many teams that would take an amalgamated tandem of center fielders over the production posted by Rowand. Drop the issue of the long-term contract he demanded and it's a no-brainer.
These are both shrug-your-shoulders-and-hope-for-the-best moves. Jenkins' best years are behind him, his production slowing and his everyday playing ability won't last much longer (fortunately, the Phils only took him for two years). Also, when this guy slumps, he slumps HARD. The timing of his downtime might be a problem.
Fielding-wise, he's no Aaron Rowand, to be sure, but he's not quite Pat Burrell, either. He'll do well enough in left or right, and the Phils should thank the gods they have Shane to play center. All in all, I think you'll see a bit of platooning with Werth with this move, and we'll see who can be better consistently.
The fact of the matter is, you couldn't ask for much better than Jenkins (I consider Cameron and Jenkins to be pretty similar at this point). The best outfielders have already moved, so options were limited. Jenkins is, like Iguchi, a quick, smart desperation move to fill a sudden need. I still think not matching the Giants for Rowand was a dumb move.
I agree with Hunter on Durbin. He essentially is a body, meant to fill a roster that will likely let Garcia and Lieber go (and potentially Lohse). There isn't much of anything on his resume that suggests anything other than the fact that he can replace the absense of an injured player.
Did you guys see that the Phils picked up So Taguchi for one year and one mil from the Cards? A smart little pickup, that. You put him in late in the game for defensive purposes, and maybe he saves a game or two that Pat Burrell can't. It's doubtful at his age and level of production that he'll start all that much, but he's a worthy asset in a pinch. And championship teams sport quality benches.
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